Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com), the global specialist risk consultancy, today released the 10th edition of its flagship Africa Risk-Reward Index (ARRI), developed in partnership with Oxford Economics Africa. The 2025 edition of the ARRI marks almost a decade of tracking the economies of 24 African markets, ensuring the political, security and economic insights remain truly data-driven.
ARRI highlights the diversity of African markets. While aggregate risk across the continent has remained broadly flat since 2017, and reward levels have largely rebounded, the real story is one of divergence. Reform-minded economies are pulling ahead, while several anchor markets face execution challenges.
“Africa will reward organisations that build resilient, regionally integrated models – not those relying on single-buyer, single-market strategies” explains Patricia Rodrigues, Associate Director, Control Risks.
The 2025 ARRI further shows that companies succeeding on the continent are those embracing localised strategies: building for regional demand, investing in local value chains and structuring for domestic volatility. Reform-led markets offer early-mover advantages, while anchor economies require conditional investment tied to tangible reforms. Across all markets, regional integration and local capital are reshaping how growth is scaled and financed.
ARRI identified the following emerging market trends set to shape the performance of companies in 2025 and beyond:
• Industrial policy is reshaping value chains. From Guinea to Mozambique, countries are moving from raw material exports to regional specialisation
• Corridor economics are gaining traction. Projects like the Lobito Corridor are catalysing cross-border industrial initiatives and inspiring similar ventures
• Local capital is waking up. Panda and samurai bonds, deeper pension pools and rising domestic debt shares are transforming the funding landscape.
• Strategic repositioning is underway. Africa is no longer waiting for external financing but is industrialising on its own terms.
“The aid era is ending; the operating era is here” added Rodrigues.
