Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com), the global specialist risk consultancy, today released the 10th edition of its flagship Africa Risk-Reward Index (ARRI), developed in partnership with Oxford Economics Africa. The 2025 edition of the ARRI marks almost a decade of tracking the economies of 24 African markets, ensuring the political, security and economic insights remain truly data-driven.
ARRI highlights the diversity of African markets. While aggregate risk across the continent has remained broadly flat since 2017, and reward levels have largely rebounded, the real story is one of divergence. Reform-minded economies are pulling ahead, while several anchor markets face execution challenges.
“Africa will reward organisations that build resilient, regionally integrated models – not those relying on single-buyer, single-market strategies” explains Patricia Rodrigues, Associate Director, Control Risks.
The 2025 ARRI further shows that companies succeeding on the continent are those embracing localised strategies: building for regional demand, investing in local value chains and structuring for domestic volatility. Reform-led markets offer early-mover advantages, while anchor economies require conditional investment tied to tangible reforms. Across all markets, regional integration and local capital are reshaping how growth is scaled and financed.
ARRI identified the following emerging market trends set to shape the performance of companies in 2025 and beyond:
• Industrial policy is reshaping value chains. From Guinea to Mozambique, countries are moving from raw material exports to regional specialisation
• Corridor economics are gaining traction. Projects like the Lobito Corridor are catalysing cross-border industrial initiatives and inspiring similar ventures
• Local capital is waking up. Panda and samurai bonds, deeper pension pools and rising domestic debt shares are transforming the funding landscape.
• Strategic repositioning is underway. Africa is no longer waiting for external financing but is industrialising on its own terms.
“The aid era is ending; the operating era is here” added Rodrigues.
![The signing ceremony took place in Kisumu, with Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o representing the county government and UN-Habitat Executive Director in Kenya, Anaclaudia Rossbach, signing on behalf of the UN agency. Under the agreement, both parties commit to jointly implementing the housing upgrade project, which Governor Nyong’o said will primarily target vulnerable groups. “The PINUA programme [is] designed to benefit the most vulnerable members of the community,” Nyong’o said, reaffirming his administration’s commitment to fostering sustainable neighborhoods equipped with essential services. Beginning November 1, 2025, the county government, working with UN-Habitat, will launch pilot projects in Kibuye Estate and Muhoroni Sub-County, based on designs and models developed through extensive public participation. The programme will focus on upgrading informal settlements by providing essential social infrastructure such as schools, sanitation facilities, affordable rental housing, early childhood development centres, and public open spaces. It also supports incremental housing models, allowing families to progressively build and eventually own decent homes. Rossbach emphasized UN-Habitat’s global commitment to driving transformative change in urban areas: “This partnership is crucial in advancing our new strategy, which focuses on improving housing access and digitally transforming informal settlements for everyone.” According to UN-Habitat housing architect Fred Omenya, the pilot phase will begin in January 2026 with the construction of two blocks of 24 housing units in Kibuye Estate.](https://businessinsights.africa/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/About-us-still-25957706200_7ca2db7e5e_k-100x70.jpg "Kisumu, UN-Habitat sign Ksh2.7bn deal for social housing upgrade")
